What are Trump's Chances in 2020?

With the Democratic primary heating up for 2020, one fo the biggest questions people are asking about the candidates is “can they beat Donald Trump?“. The answer; certainly yes. The truth is that Trump has been underwater nearly his entire presidency when it comes to his approval rating. As of today he is at about -11 points according to Nate Silver’s tally. To make matters worse for Trump, his state by state outlook has been getting worse the longer he has been in office. I am going to take a closer look at the data presented by Morning Consult, to see what the general election might look like in 2020.

Taking their data at face value (and assuming it roughly equates general election outcome) puts Trump at a devastating 105 Electoral Votes. If we give him the benefit of the doubt and add a solid 5% across the board, he still only manages to pull off 218 electoral votes.


Now the question is, “will Trump bounce back before 2020?“, which is certainly a good question, however, given his track record its a very unlikely scenario. Barring some unforeseen event (or possibly slightly foreseen event) such as an impeachment or resignation, Trump will have a very difficult time challenging nearly any Democratic contender. All in all, this is a good cycle to be a Democrat; which is probably why so many are running.